It's that time of the year again, it's Randy Johnson's 300th Win Day, or the anniversary of the day that Randy Johnson became the 24th member of the 300 Win Club, all the way back on June 4, 2009. Yes, I have gone ahead and made it a holiday. I'm probably the only person in the world that celebrates it.
In the past several years I've generally written something on Randy Johnson's 300th Win Day. This year will be no different. However, whereas in the past I've written about the game itself, I'm going to stay away from that. After all, how many times can you write about the same game, especially after I dedicated almost 500,000 words to the 10th Anniversary of the game. Instead, this year I am going to focus more about the prospects that any future pitcher has with reaching 300 wins.
And frankly, this year things don't look too good.
I've thought a little bit about how I should best organize this post, and ultimately I decided that the best way is to go back and take a look at the top 10 winningest active pitcher at the end of June 4 ever year dating back to 2009. I did present the leaderboard in last year's Randy Johnson's 300th Win Day post, but I figure this year I'll do it again only with some context. Because that way you can best see how stark the landscape is.
Before I go on, let me just explain that my definition of being an "active pitcher" is that the pitcher must be under contract with a Major League franchise. They could be on the injured list or on a minor league assignment, but in other words unsigned free agents are not going to be on this list.
June 4, 2009
300 Randy Johnson
250 Jamie Moyer
220 Andy Pettitte
210 John Smoltz
185 Tim Wakefield
153 Bartolo Colon
151 Livan Hernandez
146 Tim Hudson
146 Kevin Millwood
144 Mike Hampton
Life was good on June 4, 2009. Randy Johnson and the San Francisco Giants beat the Washington Nationals 5-1, and Major League Baseball has their first 300-game-winner since...Tom Glavine reached the milestone on August 5, 2007. Okay, so there hadn't been that much time that passed since the 300-win club was last breached. And the rest of the pitchers in the top 10 are kind of underwhelming, with two of the other three pitchers with at least 200 wins on the wrong side of 40. Nevertheless, there were still some pitchers under 30 that were doing great work and seemed like they could mount an assault on the milestone in the future. They were just a few years away from debuting on the top 10. For now the future of the milestone is still somewhat muddy, but perhaps things would clear up in a few year's time.
June 4, 2010
263 Jamie Moyer
236 Andy Pettitte
190 Tim Wakefield
160 Livan Hernandez
156 Roy Halladay
155 Kevin Millwood
154 Tim Hudson
149 Derek Lowe
146 Javier Vazquez
141 CC Sabathia
It's the one-year anniversary of Randy Johnson's 300th Win, and I was piecing together my six month-one year retrospective on the milestone, the first time that I would write anything about the milestone (but certainly not the last.) Meanwhile, some of the young aces were making their very first appearance on the leaderboard. 29-year-old CC Sabathia was on the list with 141 wins, having won a remarkable 19 games in the interim. Meanwhile Roy Halladay may have been 33 already, but he was on his way to have one of the finest seasons of his career, winning his 156th game that night, giving him 16 wins in the past year. His 155th win was a masterpiece, a complete game victory over the Florida Marlins. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte is also at 16 wins since the year before. He has been hinting at retirement, but he's been doing that for a few years already, and he's pitching as well as he has been in a long time. Surely he can't be serious. And somehow Jamie Moyer is getting batters out even at the age of 47. A month prior he had broken the record for oldest pitcher to record a complete game shutout, breaking the record held by Phil Niekro back on Knucksie's 300th win. We're still a couple of years away from another 300-game winner, but there are certainly enough pitchers to make things interesting.
June 4, 2011
195 Tim Wakefield
176 Roy Halladay
169 Livan Hernandez
169 Tim Hudson
164 CC Sabathia
160 Derek Lowe
159 Kevin Millwood
156 Bartolo Colon
155 Javier Vazquez
153 Mark Buehrle
153 Roy Oswalt
Another year has passed since Randy Johnson won his 300th win and I was too busy taking my COMLEX (and driving to Longview) to write anything about baseball, but a quick look at the leaderboard reveals something quite startling. Whatever happened to Jamie Moyer and Andy Pettitte, the 200-game winners from the year before? Well, Pettitte finally went through on his threats of retirement despite a 11-3 record and a 3.28 ERA. And Moyer suffered an elbow injury that ultimately turned into a torn ulnar collateral ligament, requiring Tommy John surgery. The fact he is getting ligament surgery means that he intends to attempt a comeback, but for now he's a free agent rehabbing from his surgery. Meanwhile, with Tim Wakefield gasping and wheezing his way to 200 wins, there are no active pitchers with 200 wins in Major League Baseball since the 19th century.
However, despite the lack of a 200-game winner, there are a remarkable 11 pitchers with 150 wins. Halladay and Sabathia are both going strong, with Halladay netting 20 wins in the past year while Sabathia beating him with an astounding 23. Meanwhile Bartolo Colon is making his first appearance since 2009, after being out for all of 2010 from a shoulder injury. Still, at 38 he's not expected to climb up much further on the list, especially with Tim Hudson making a strong recovery from his Tommy John surgery three years earlier, and Mark Buehrle confounding hitters with his stark consistency. Meanwhile, 28 year old Justin Verlander did win his 89th game this night, giving him 19 in the year.
June 4, 2012
269 Jamie Moyer
242 Andy Pettitte
192 Roy Halladay
184 Tim Hudson
183 CC Sabathia
175 Livan Hernandez
173 Derek Lowe
166 Mark Buehrle
166 Kevin Millwood
165 Bartolo Colon
It's the third anniversary of Randy Johnson's 300th Win, and I was deep in my pediatrics rotation in my third year of medical school. That didn't stop me from writing a little something about the game on my other blog. Meanwhile, Jamie Moyer and Andy Pettitte were back after a year's absence. However, their chances at 300 wins were shot from their yearlong hiatus. 49-year-old Moyer was abysmal in ten starts with the Colorado Rockies, and would be drawing his release that day. Pettitte made his decision to un-retire during spring training, and that kept him from making his debut until later in the month. Halladay and Sabathia both had solid years, with Halladay netting 16 wins to Sabathia's 19. However, Halladay had been on the Disabled List for about a week by the time this milestone came around, and nobody had any idea how much this injury would cut short his career. Deeper down in the active pitcher wins list, Verlander had 112 wins after winning the Cy Young in the American League in 2011, giving him 23 since the previous June 4. The National League Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw won 19 in the interim, although he was a bit further behind with 51 wins.
June 4, 2013
249 Andy Pettitte
201 Roy Halladay
201 Tim Hudson
196 CC Sabathia
177 Bartolo Colon
176 Mark Buehrle
164 Barry Zito
163 Roy Oswalt
154 Freddy Garcia
140 A.J. Burnett
I was in the summer between my medical school graduation and the beginning of my internal medicine residency when the anniversary rolled around again, and this time instead of writing about the milestone I wrote about the 300-win club itself, specifically sharing pictures I took visiting the graves of the deceased members and posing with the living members. Meanwhile in the pitching realm, we did get two new members of the 200-win club to give us three active members, but two of them saw their chances at 300 fall to almost zero. Pettitte ended up missing two whole months in 2012 after having his leg broken by a comebacker. And even though he was chasing his 250th win, the fact his 41st birthday is coming up really affected his chances. At least he was pitching better than Halladay, who was only a shell of his former dominant self since coming back from his shoulder injury. Hudson, the third active member of the 200-win club, was still going strong, with 17 wins in the past year, a second straight strong showing for the 37-year-old. Sabathia was also closing in on 200 wins, but with 13 wins in the past year his pace was slowing down. Verlander continued his climb up the active wins list, with 19 wins between anniversaries and 131 total.
June 4, 2014
211 Tim Hudson
208 CC Sabathia
196 Mark Buehrle
194 Bartolo Colon
150 A.J. Burnett
144 John Lackey
143 Cliff Lee
143 Justin Verlander
142 Bronson Arroyo
139 Johan Santana.
I was nearing the end of my first year of internal medicine residency by the time the fifth anniversary of Randy Johnson's 300th win came around, but that didn't stop me from transcribing the CSN Bay Area broadcast of the game, which I posted on that day. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte and Roy Halladay were two of the many veteran pitchers that made their exits from the game, allowing a whole new cast of pitchers debuting on the top 10 leaderboard. Of course, the new members weren't exact inspiring a lot of confidence. Justin Verlander has been one of the most dynamic pitchers for the past decade, but he struggled mightily late in 2013 and was not off to a strong start. His 12 wins in the past year was well off the pace he had set for himself up to that point. Johan Santana hadn't even pitched since 2012, as he was trying to come back from the shoulder injury that knocked him off the pedestal as one of the best active pitchers.
However, two of the veterans on the top 10 leaderboard were finding new life in new homes. Bartolo Colon had done well in his comeback with the Yankees, and that earned him a contract with the Oakand Athletics. He did receive a suspension for steroids late in 2012, but came back just as strong in 2013, and was doing well after signing with the New York Mets in the offseason. He had 194 wins after putting up 17 wins in the previous year. Mark Buehrle had signed a contract with the Miami Marlins for 2012 and was his usual consistent self, winning 13 games for the fourth straight season. Unfortunately, the 2012 Marlins ended up being a catastrophic disaster, and Buehrle was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. He was terrible in his first two months north of the border, but went on a hot streak late in the 2013 season, and was 10-1 in the first two months of 2014. He had 20 wins at the last check-in, and was at 196 total. At 35 he was setting himself up for a potential run for 300. Thank goodness for that, as Hudson and Sabathia were slowing down. A couple of pitchers getting on the radar lower in the active wins list include Zack Greinke who won 21 games with the Dodgers in the year before to give himself 114 wins, and Max Scherzer who had 20 wins with the Tigers to give him 79.
June 4, 2015
217 Tim Hudson
212 Bartolo Colon
210 CC Sabathia
206 Mark Buehrle
165 Barry Zito
161 A.J. Burnett
156 John Lackey
152 Justin Verlander
148 Dan Haren
145 Bronson Arroyo
145 Kyle Lohse
In June 2015 I was coming off what might have been my favorite month in the past decade while making preparations to go back in the match for my second residency. There was so much excitement my celebration of Randy Johnson's 300th win was mostly collecting articles written by other people, including the lady that traveled 800 miles to watch the game. Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon was establishing himself as a new favorite for a chase for 300. Sure he was 42 years old, but he had 18 wins while becoming a folk hero with the Mets, and with 212 wins he had passed Sabathia who had missed most of 2014 with a knee injury and was largely ineffective since. Also on the injured list was Verlander who had missed the first two months of the season from a triceps strain, after a difficult end to the season before. On the other side of the spectrum Clayton Kershaw had finally surpassed the 100-win milestone, and was sitting at 102 after winning 21 games the year before in a season that won him an MVP award in addition to his third Cy Young.
June 4, 2016
222 Bartolo Colon
217 CC Sabathia
171 John Lackey
161 Justin Verlander
149 Jake Peavy
149 Zack Greinke
147 Felix Hernandez
147 Kyle Lohse
145 Bronson Arroyo
143 Jered Weaver
It's the seventh anniversary of Randy Johnson's 300th win, and I was preparing for my transition from my internal medicine residency in Longview to my psychiatry residency in Temple. In fact on this day I was driving to Temple to pick up the keys to my new apartment, even though I would not actually be moving until later in the month. Meanwhile, Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle were among the pitchers that called it a career after the 2015 season, leading to an influx of new pitchers on the top 10 leaderboard. The key name among the newbies was Zack Greinke, who had himself a fantastic season in 2015. He exercised an opt-out clause and signed a massive contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks and was struggling, but he still won 21 wins in the interim to give him 149.
Three other pitchers have reached 20 wins in the past calendar year. Clayton Kershaw was his usual dominant self in the second half of 2015, and was off to the best start of his career in 2016, as he posted 20 wins to give him 122. David Price had jumped from the Detroit Tigers to the Toronto Blue Jays to the Boston Red Sox. His numbers in Beantown weren't fantastic, but he had led the American League in ERA in 2015, and was at 111 after getting 21 wins. Of course the leader in wins between June 4 was Jake Arrieta of all people. The former TCU Horned Frog was 5-4 despite a 3.04 ERA with the Chicago Cubs on June 4, 2015, but went 17-2 the rest of the way, and now he was off to a 9-0 to give him an astonishing 26 wins in the past year, although it only helped him get to 65 wins at the age of 30. The most remarkable pitching performances may have been done by Max Scherzer. He only had 14 wins to give him 111, but among those 14 wins include two no-hitters, and a 20-strikeout game.
June 4, 2017
235 Bartolo Colon
229 CC Sabathia
180 John Lackey
177 Justin Verlander
162 Zack Greinke
156 Felix Hernandez
150 Jered Weaver
149 Jon Lester
148 Bronson Arroyo
140 Ervin Santana
140 Adam Wainwright
I was in my first year as a psychiatry resident in 2017, and on this day I was on a vacation and driving from Northern Virginia to New York City for BookCon, where I got to meet Andrea Libman and Ashleigh Ball, the voice actresses for Fluttershy, Pinkie Pie, Applejack and Rainbow Dash in My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic. I was obviously too busy to write anything, but this was the first day where I first put together a top 10 leaderboard at the end of the day on June 4. They key pitcher making his debut on the top 10 leaderboard was Jon Lester, the former ace of the Boston Red Sox who went to Chicago to help the Cubs win a World Series, their first since 1908. He had 16 wins in the interim to put him at 149. Max Scherzer was also getting the wins that had eluded him for much of 2015. He had won 20 games in between to put him at 131.
Meanwhile a few pitchers near the top were recovering from some down years to put up some bounce-back seasons, although whether or not it revived their chances at 300 was another matter entirely. Justin Verlander went only 5-8 after coming back from his triceps injury in 2015, but he went on to lead the American League in strikeouts in 2016 and finished second in Cy Young voting despite getting the most first place votes. He had 16 wins in between and was now at 177 despite a slow start to 2017. CC Sabathia went only 6-10 in 2015 after coming back from his knee injury. He did come back fairly strong in 2016, and had five wins in 2017 despite a terrible ERA. He had 12 wins in the year before and was at 229. Bartolo Colon had a strong 2016 where he had made history by hitting a home run at the age of 42, but he was struggling mightily in his first season with the Atlanta Braves, and had 235 wins. On the other side of the spectrum, Clayton Kershaw's strong 2016 season was interrupted by chronic back pain. He was only able to secure 11 wins to put him at 133 despite still being among the best pitchers in baseball.
June 4, 2018
242 Bartolo Colon
239 CC Sabathia
195 Justin Verlander
176 Zack Greinke
166 Felix Hernandez
165 Jon Lester
150 Cole Hamels
150 Max Scherzer
149 Ervin Santana
147 Adam Wainwright
By the ninth anniversary of Randy Johnson's 300th win, it had been two years since I had written anything about the game. I had originally thought about transcribing the MASN broadcast, but I decided to save it for the 10-year spectacular, and put up a transcription of the CSN Bay Area pre-game and post-game show instead. Meanwhile, a few of the top pitchers in the middle of the decade were making their debuts on the top 10 leaderboard. Max Scherzer did so after winning 19 games in the year in between while capturing his milestone 150th win five days before. Cole Hamels won it eight days earlier after a strong career with the Philadelphia Phillies and the Texas Rangers. Clayton Kershaw didn't quite make it to the top 10, as his 12 wins in between put him only at 145, two behind Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals veteran who had two instances of a 20-win season following a 19-win season, with a Tommy John surgery in between. Justin Verlander was setting himself up to be a top candidate for 300 wins. He had a strong finish to the 2017 season when he was traded from the Tigers to the Houston Astros. While his best performance came in the 2017 ALCS against the New York Yankees, he did add 18 wins to his win totals to reach 195. At 36 he's a little bit behind where Sabathia was, but if he can avoid another serious injury then he may have a chance...
June 4, 2019
249 CC Sabathia
213 Justin Verlander
193 Zack Greinke
181 Jon Lester
169 Felix Hernandez
162 Max Scherzer
160 Cole Hamels
158 Clayton Kershaw
153 Adam Wainwright
149 Ervin Santana
Here we are, the 10th anniversary of Randy Johnson's 300th Win! I had put together my five-part tribute to the game in addition to a Facebook note about how June 3 and 4 in the last year of a decade were significant. I had pre-loaded all of these articles, but on this day I had worked all day before driving over to Globe Life Park in Arlington to select seats for the new Globe Life Field opening in a year. I decided not to stay for the game, but that still kept me out all day. It was a memorable anniversary.
Meanwhile Justin Verlander had another strong season to keep up his status as one of the game's best hope for 300 wins. He had another solid regular season where he finished second in another close race for the Cy Young as he breezed past the 200-win milestone to end up at 213 wins, 18 more than he had a year prior. His future teammate Zack Greinke was also having a strong year. He had shaken off his early struggles in Arizona and was at 17 wins in the year in between to put him at 193, another candidate to get to 200 later in the season. Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw weren't winning at quite t he same pace, but they were still staking their claim as among the best pitchers in the ten years since Randy Johnson won his 300th game. Who knows how things would wrap up by the next check-in a year later?
June 4, 2020
225 Justin Verlander
205 Zack Greinke
190 Jon Lester
170 Max Scherzer
169 Felix Hernandez
169 Clayton Kershaw
163 Cole Hamels
162 Adam Wainwright
150 David Price
149 Rick Porcello
And then, the next thing you know, everything ground to a halt. The global COVID pandemic hit, and so the opening of the season was canceled. I was finished with my residency a few months early, but I was just sitting around doing some telepsychiatry work while playing too much Animal Crossing. I did put up a tiny odds and ends post. It would be another month and a half until the shortened season would start back up, and so whatever win totals the pitcher put up after June 4 the year before would be the grand total. Leading the way was Astros ace Gerrit Cole, who went 15-0 to put himself at 94 wins. He still lost the Cy Young award to his teammate Justin Verlander, who won 12 games after June 4 to put himself at 225. Their third teammate Zack Greinke also had a strong year, winning 12 games of his own to reach 205. Clayton Kershaw had 11 wins to put him at 169. Although the pitcher that was establishing himself as the best in baseball was doing everything except pick up wins. Jacob deGrom posted a 1.70 ERA with 269 strikeouts in 2018. He followed that up with an ERA that was slightly higher in 2019, but it was still a spectacular 2.43, and he led the league with 255 strikeouts. He took home back-to-back Cy Young awards. And yet for all of his dominance he had picked up only 21 combined wins in those two full seasons. Given the fact he was almost 32 with only 66 wins in his name, it's safe to say that 300 wins is not in his future.
June 4, 2021
226 Justin Verlander
214 Zack Greinke
193 Jon Lester
182 Clayton Kershaw
180 Max Scherzer
170 Adam Wainwright
151 David Price
149 Ervin Santana
132 Johnny Cueto
126 J.A. Happ
And here we are, another Randy Johnson's 300th Win Day, and things couldn't look more stark than they did a year before. Chief of those was the shortened season a year before, when nobody had more than 13 starts. The schedule has returned to normal, but that may not be a good thing for prospective 300-game-winners. The rate of injuries among players have gone up dramatically, and has claimed the playing career of some of the game's biggest stars. Of course the starkest injury casualty likely goes to Justin Verlander. He had surgery in his groin that cost him most of the second half of spring training, but thanks to the shortened season he was able to recover in time to make the Opening Day start. He picked up the win, but then had to be shut down due to a forearm strain. He tried rest and rehabilitation, but ended up having to submit to Tommy John surgery by the end of the season. The fact that he waited to get the surgery meant that he would miss most of 2021 as well, For somebody in which 300-win was already somewhat of a reach, the missed time feels almost like death blow.
Meanwhile, a few of the veterans on the top 10 leaderboard last year are sitting on the outside, guys like Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, and Rick Porcello. This has happened a few times in the past, but in those instances the pitchers that come and replace their spot had at least 140 career wins. Of the pitchers that weren't on last year's top 10, the only one with at least 140 wins was Ervin Santana, who made a return as a reliever/spot starter with the Kansas City Royals after sitting out all of 2020. Of course, he was sitting at the same 149 wins since he last won a ballgame on September 23, 2017. The other two serve as a stark reminder of how few pitchers compile impressive win totals nowadays. There's Johnny Cueto, who had been one of the top pitchers in the National League earlier in the decade, putting up a 20-win season in 2014 to go with a 19-win season in 2012 and an 18-win season in 2016. Of course, he hadn't reached double digit wins after 2016 as he dealt with injury and ineffectiveness, and he is stuck at 132 wins. He still has six more wins than J.A. Happ, who despite a 20-win season in 2016 still has only 126 wins, by far the fewest by any pitcher in the top 10 since Randy Johnson reached the milestone in 2016.
If there's any consolation, there are still some veteran pitchers that are still having fantastic seasons. Clayton Kershaw has 13 wins in the interim to put himself at 182, and that's not including the four wins he had in the expanded post-season as he finally took home a World Series title. Max Scherzer has also done well for a team that has struggled since winning a World Series in 2019. He has won ten games in the past year to bring him up to 180 while getting his usual surfeit of strikeouts, putting him within 112 strikeouts from 3,000. Meanwhile Zack Greinke has picked up the slack as the ace of the Houston Astros. He has won nine games in the past year and is now up to 214 wins.
A look at the winningest pitchers in the past year may give up some hope for the future. There are two pitchers that have 14 wins, one more than Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, and Lance Lynn. One of these is Yu Darvish. He had a solid albeit confounding career with the Texas Rangers before moving on to put up a few even more confounding seasons with the Chicago Cubs. He did find another gear and won a league-leading eight in 2020. The Cubs strangely traded him to the San Diego Padres, where he is enjoying another solid season. However, he is closing in on his 35th birthday and all that success gave him only 77, so it's safe to say that 300 wins isn't in his future. The other pitcher is a different story. When Shane Bieber was coming up in the Cleveland Indians system he was best known for having the same surname as Canadian pop star Justin Bieber. However, in 2020 Shane took his pitching to the next level and also won a league-leading eight games and 122 strikeouts on his way to the Cy Young award. His ERA almost doubled for 2021, but it's still 3.08, and he has six wins to go with his strikeout totals that still leads the league. Of course, he is at only 40 wins since his 14 wins is less than his 15 from all of 2019, but he just turned 26, too early to make any conclusions. Yet the fact he lost almost four months from his peak season still makes 300 wins a difficult thing to envision.
And this past year has been difficult for the 300-win club even away from the field. After all, we lost three members of the club since the last anniversary
RIP Tom Seaver (1944-2020)
RIP Phil Niekro (1939-2020)
RIP Don Sutton (1945-2021)
And that's why we should continue to honor what Randy Johnson did 12 years ago today, on June 4, 2009.
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One thing before I go. As I mentioned in last year's post, I use Cameo a lot, and a year ago I had gotten a Cameo from Bengie Molina, the catcher for Randy Johnson's 300th Win. Well shortly after that post went up, I saw that the Nationals catcher, Wil Nieves, had also gotten on Cameo. I put in a request asking him to reminisce about playing in the game. He also mentioned how it was a cool moment, and brought up his previous history against the Big Unit, including collecting his first hit off of Randy in 2002 and also being teammates in 2005 and 2006. Of course he did neglect to mention how he was the final out.
Anyways, here's the Cameo.
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